There's loads of testing that needs to be done this year but, in my head, this is what I'm thinking things are gonna look like. Pay no attention to the curb finder webbing up front.
Also pay no attention to the fact that you are looking at a singlespeed. This bike WILL have gears on it come July. Right now the bivy is in the seat bag and that's it. Depending on some things (weather, how I feel, how mad/determined I am), there will also either be a down sleeping bag in there or just a liner of some sort or nothing else at all. The 1/8" closed cell foam pad you see may not go as well. It only weighs an ounce but we'll see. There should be plenty of room for some junk in the trunk (mainly food). Up front will be the same gear as last year just minus the Carousel Designs bag. This just keeps me from bringing too much crap. One of the debates this year will be whether or not I bring my down vest or the down coat. They are both stupid lightweight and really warm. Of course the other change from previous years will be the gas tank bag which will be stocked with plenty of Honey Stinger goods.
I remember that first year and all the stuff I lugged along and my jaw drops. I also remember looking at guys like Jason Shelman, Ethan Passant, Plesko and wondering what the hell they were thinking by not bringing more stuff (especially Jason). I don't think I can get too much more refined now. I think last year I was about 34lbs for the bike. Soon I'll start getting some ideas of how things are going to shake out this year. I know it's early but I'm pretty excited.